{
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  "@id": "https://w3id.org/marco-bolo/mbo_2622cabe-36b7-4ff0-bcbf-1adf77431904",
  "@type": "DigitalDocument",
  "abstract": "This deliverable summarizes the scientific outputs generated by Task T5.4 — 'Mapping the impacts of Non-Indigenous species (NIS) on European coastal and marine habitats, based on multi-disciplinary approaches'. In this task we modelled 82 species identified by marine genetic monitoring programs in 2020-2024 as occurring outside their native range. Models produced predictions of suitable habitat in current and future climate scenarios for these non-indigenous species (NIS) and can be used to identify regions with elevated risk for establishment and spread of alien species. The modelling builds on the Species Distribution Model (SDM) workflow developed for invasive alien species hotspot mapping by the University of Gothenburg, applied here to species detected by the ARMS-MBON and Swedish national port monitoring programmes. The models are based on a Random Forest machine learning algorithm using environmental data layers from Bio-Oracle for current and future climate scenarios (SSP119). The model's source code, inputs and results are available on GitHub. The genetic monitoring programs that donated the alien species lists for this experiment do not yet provide enough species occurrence data to influence the outcome of the model predictions, which means that GBIF and OBIS still provide most of the occurrence data for the modelling. However, the genetic monitoring programs do provide the list of species detected to be 'on the move'. For these species, the models provide valuable knowledge on potential alien species impact as they are able to align the presently known distribution with the potential distribution of these species in the future. The SDM analysis tool will be added to the EDITO platform (Digital Twin of the Ocean) during 2026.",
  "alternateName": "D5.5",
  "author": [
    {
      "@id": "https://w3id.org/marco-bolo/mbo_fb5f8c5d-c22b-429f-a0bc-700ae161033c"
    },
    {
      "@id": "https://w3id.org/marco-bolo/mbo_4bdea6e0-af73-4a27-940e-19e94e86add9"
    }
  ],
  "availableLanguage": "en",
  "contributor": {
    "@id": "https://w3id.org/marco-bolo/mbo_cf69d77e-2ded-4a17-9142-1aa1f7629b26"
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    "@id": "https://w3id.org/marco-bolo/mbo_c2fb3abb-2a8e-420b-8059-271b57a95840"
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  "schema:dateCreated": "2025-06-30",
  "schema:datePublished": "2025-09-05",
  "description": "Scientific document summarising the results of the Species distribution modelling and mapping of the alien species impacts on the European coastal and marine habitats",
  "identifier": [
    "Deliverable D5.5",
    "doi:10.5281/zenodo.20787365"
  ],
  "keywords": [
    "alien species",
    "species distribution modelling",
    "non-indigenous species",
    "MBO WP5",
    "climate projections"
  ],
  "license": "https://w3id.org/marco-bolo/mbo_500ee36e-324d-4f2f-9b0b-a4408f638201",
  "name": "MARCO-BOLO Deliverable D5.5 - Scientific document summarising the results of the Species distribution modelling and mapping of the alien species impacts on the European coastal and marine habitats",
  "schema:url": [
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      "@type": "URL",
      "@value": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20787365"
    },
    {
      "@type": "URL",
      "@value": "https://zenodo.org/records/20787365"
    },
    {
      "@type": "URL",
      "@value": "https://marcobolo-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/MARCO-BOLO_D5.5_30.06.2025.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "version": "1"
}